HoDeanie Speaks ...

Welcome to my magical blog! Tired of all the turmoil and nasty things happening in the world? Do you just need a break and a place to get away? Do you wish you had just the right thing to say, when confronted with a nasty Republican argument? Well look no further ... I'm your "political spin" genie - Here to provide you with the useful words, phrasing, messaging and comebacks with just a "blink" (or "click" I guess, since we're on-line)... What can I answer for you today?

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

(11-21-07) Democratic Nomination Forcast:

Well, I've been giving these Presidential races a lot of thought, I'm going to write my "visions" for the current Democratic Nomination here today, and will think a little more on the Republican Nomination for my next posting ...

Also, don't forget to read all the way to the bottom to "My Question to you..." I'm looking for some feedback to help my "genie" radar focus.

Yours truly,


Any respectable "politico" will tell you that (as it stands now in Iowa - this race is too close to call). What I can tell you is how the current top three candidates are doing, and what my "genie" radar is telling me.

As many people know the media is perpetuating that this is a two person race (between Clinton & Obama). I don't really buy this. I believe that it's actually a three way statistical tie between (Clinton, Edwards & Obama). Why is this story not in the media yet? Perhaps they have another chapter to write in this "horse race" before January 3, 2008.

One could argue, that polling in Iowa has historically been unpredictable at best. This is because (as all genies know) Iowans are almost "professionals" at this, or at least they are the focus of much attention in Presidential races. Not to mention, like most Americans, Iowans like to keep their votes private. Often times, they just tell the pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear, to get them to go away.

So here is my current assessment & forecast of the top three Democrats in the race, along with a comment & "Question to you..." on some of the other candidates who've started to make it onto my "genie" radar.

Perceived to be the front runner. Has encountered some "stormy weather" these past few weeks, resulting in her campaign's momentum slowing to a near stand still. While strongly idling in first place, one could say her campaign is no longer exuding confidence and sticking to the "high road;" as evidenced with her recent defensive maneuvers in attacking Obama on his foreign policy experience. It is very possible for her to still lose this race.

-OBAMA: Perceived to be "surging" into first place. Whilist taking some of the steam from Clinton's campaign, people still seem to wonder what his positions are on a lot of the issues. There are still complaints that he is too vague and inexperienced. However, unlike Clinton, he has good support for second round votes in Iowa. He's also considered to be more likable and more trustworthy than Clinton. If he continues in this direction, he could very well win Iowa.

-EDWARDS: Perceived as the "dark horse" candidate. Been hitting Clinton hard, and has solid "unwavering" base support. Has had trouble getting his message out, resulting in low fundraising and low national numbers. However, he has a strong operation on the ground in Iowa and 2004 Primary experience. Also, despite better funded competition in the race, his support remains consistent. By no means, should his chances to win be underestimated.


What my "genie" radar is telling me, is that only TWO of the first tier candidates will finish in Iowa's top three spots (which two it's still hard to tell). This means that one of the second tier candidates may do better than expected. Who's coming into my view is still a little foggy with my "genie" radar. So it might help if you tell me what you think of the following 2nd tier candidates so I can get some better energy to "fix" on.

Can you share with me who you think in the 2nd tier might do well in Iowa and why???

*2nd Tier Democrats:* (in alphabetical order)
Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Chris Dodd, Sen. Mike Gravel, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Gov. Bill Richardson

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  • At 8:42 AM, Blogger ryanshaunkelly said…

    Colbert gravel kucinich paul nader perot carter [conyers?rangel?] united for truth elicit fear smear blacklist.

    The people know too much,
    democracy rising democracy now.
    Rage against the machine.

    Honesty compassion intelligence guts.

    No more extortion blackmail bribery division.
    Divided we fall.

  • At 11:02 AM, Blogger benton jew said…

    I can't see any of the "second tier" candidates "surging". It's more likely that either Hillary or Obama could stumble.

    A more likely scenario is that one of the top three will eventually benefit from any the second tier guys faltering. As most of the candidates are the left of Hillary, I can't see Hillary gaining anything from that scenario. So Edwards and Obama have that advantage. But if Hillary falters, I don't see those voters running to Edwards, so advantage Obama. Edwards can only win if Obama AND Hillary stumble.

    Hillary has everything to lose.

    Obama has everything to gain.

    Edwards will stay the same.

    My prediction: Obama surprises in Iowa!

  • At 12:19 PM, Blogger HoDeanie said…

    Perhaps my question was "unclear." I already stated I believed one of the top three candidates would stumble.

    As I forecast it now, it's a three way tie - what you in your "mortal" state see, could well just be a candidate supporter viewing the race from his/her candidate's perspective. I am the "genie" here not you. I both understand and appreciate your enthusiasm for your candidate, but would really like to stick to the original question...

    As asked before, who in the second tier do you think is the strongest (and why)?

    Perhaps (as in your scenario) this might only serve to help one of the top three figure out how to take advantage of the situation; but since the MSM are only paying attention to the top three, I thought it might be interesting to open up a discussion to only discuss the second tier candidates.

    So, what is your opinion on the second tier candidates?

  • At 12:21 PM, Blogger benton jew said…

    Bill Richardson is polling in 4th place. He has a few good ideas about education. Should do well with Iowa voters.

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