(11-21-07) Democratic Nomination Forcast:
Well, I've been giving these Presidential races a lot of thought, I'm going to write my "visions" for the current Democratic Nomination here today, and will think a little more on the Republican Nomination for my next posting ...
Also, don't forget to read all the way to the bottom to "My Question to you..." I'm looking for some feedback to help my "genie" radar focus.
Yours truly,
-HoDeanie
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(11-21-07) DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FORECAST:
Any respectable "politico" will tell you that (as it stands now in Iowa - this race is too close to call). What I can tell you is how the current top three candidates are doing, and what my "genie" radar is telling me.
As many people know the media is perpetuating that this is a two person race (between Clinton & Obama). I don't really buy this. I believe that it's actually a three way statistical tie between (Clinton, Edwards & Obama). Why is this story not in the media yet? Perhaps they have another chapter to write in this "horse race" before January 3, 2008.
One could argue, that polling in Iowa has historically been unpredictable at best. This is because (as all genies know) Iowans are almost "professionals" at this, or at least they are the focus of much attention in Presidential races. Not to mention, like most Americans, Iowans like to keep their votes private. Often times, they just tell the pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear, to get them to go away.
So here is my current assessment & forecast of the top three Democrats in the race, along with a comment & "Question to you..." on some of the other candidates who've started to make it onto my "genie" radar.
-CLINTON: Perceived to be the front runner. Has encountered some "stormy weather" these past few weeks, resulting in her campaign's momentum slowing to a near stand still. While strongly idling in first place, one could say her campaign is no longer exuding confidence and sticking to the "high road;" as evidenced with her recent defensive maneuvers in attacking Obama on his foreign policy experience. It is very possible for her to still lose this race.
-OBAMA: Perceived to be "surging" into first place. Whilist taking some of the steam from Clinton's campaign, people still seem to wonder what his positions are on a lot of the issues. There are still complaints that he is too vague and inexperienced. However, unlike Clinton, he has good support for second round votes in Iowa. He's also considered to be more likable and more trustworthy than Clinton. If he continues in this direction, he could very well win Iowa.
-EDWARDS: Perceived as the "dark horse" candidate. Been hitting Clinton hard, and has solid "unwavering" base support. Has had trouble getting his message out, resulting in low fundraising and low national numbers. However, he has a strong operation on the ground in Iowa and 2004 Primary experience. Also, despite better funded competition in the race, his support remains consistent. By no means, should his chances to win be underestimated.
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MY QUESTION TO YOU???
What my "genie" radar is telling me, is that only TWO of the first tier candidates will finish in Iowa's top three spots (which two it's still hard to tell). This means that one of the second tier candidates may do better than expected. Who's coming into my view is still a little foggy with my "genie" radar. So it might help if you tell me what you think of the following 2nd tier candidates so I can get some better energy to "fix" on.
Can you share with me who you think in the 2nd tier might do well in Iowa and why???
*2nd Tier Democrats:* (in alphabetical order)
Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Chris Dodd, Sen. Mike Gravel, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Gov. Bill Richardson
Also, don't forget to read all the way to the bottom to "My Question to you..." I'm looking for some feedback to help my "genie" radar focus.
Yours truly,
-HoDeanie
******************************************************************
(11-21-07) DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FORECAST:
Any respectable "politico" will tell you that (as it stands now in Iowa - this race is too close to call). What I can tell you is how the current top three candidates are doing, and what my "genie" radar is telling me.
As many people know the media is perpetuating that this is a two person race (between Clinton & Obama). I don't really buy this. I believe that it's actually a three way statistical tie between (Clinton, Edwards & Obama). Why is this story not in the media yet? Perhaps they have another chapter to write in this "horse race" before January 3, 2008.
One could argue, that polling in Iowa has historically been unpredictable at best. This is because (as all genies know) Iowans are almost "professionals" at this, or at least they are the focus of much attention in Presidential races. Not to mention, like most Americans, Iowans like to keep their votes private. Often times, they just tell the pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear, to get them to go away.
So here is my current assessment & forecast of the top three Democrats in the race, along with a comment & "Question to you..." on some of the other candidates who've started to make it onto my "genie" radar.
-CLINTON: Perceived to be the front runner. Has encountered some "stormy weather" these past few weeks, resulting in her campaign's momentum slowing to a near stand still. While strongly idling in first place, one could say her campaign is no longer exuding confidence and sticking to the "high road;" as evidenced with her recent defensive maneuvers in attacking Obama on his foreign policy experience. It is very possible for her to still lose this race.
-OBAMA: Perceived to be "surging" into first place. Whilist taking some of the steam from Clinton's campaign, people still seem to wonder what his positions are on a lot of the issues. There are still complaints that he is too vague and inexperienced. However, unlike Clinton, he has good support for second round votes in Iowa. He's also considered to be more likable and more trustworthy than Clinton. If he continues in this direction, he could very well win Iowa.
-EDWARDS: Perceived as the "dark horse" candidate. Been hitting Clinton hard, and has solid "unwavering" base support. Has had trouble getting his message out, resulting in low fundraising and low national numbers. However, he has a strong operation on the ground in Iowa and 2004 Primary experience. Also, despite better funded competition in the race, his support remains consistent. By no means, should his chances to win be underestimated.
******************************************************************
MY QUESTION TO YOU???
What my "genie" radar is telling me, is that only TWO of the first tier candidates will finish in Iowa's top three spots (which two it's still hard to tell). This means that one of the second tier candidates may do better than expected. Who's coming into my view is still a little foggy with my "genie" radar. So it might help if you tell me what you think of the following 2nd tier candidates so I can get some better energy to "fix" on.
Can you share with me who you think in the 2nd tier might do well in Iowa and why???
*2nd Tier Democrats:* (in alphabetical order)
Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Chris Dodd, Sen. Mike Gravel, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Gov. Bill Richardson
Labels: Democratic Nomination, Iowa, Second Tier
posted by HoDeanie @ 3:29 AM
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